Globalization

The world of today is barely recognizable when compared with the world, which faced our parents when Pakistan was created. And it is a radically different world to the one that challenged our grandparents' generation when they were young adults. Of course, change has always been with us, but the difference today is that the pace of global change is quickening.

Globalization is shaping and reshaping today's world and the world of tomorrow - your world - in extraordinary and far-reaching ways.

The defining feature of globalization is that firms, social networks, political structures and information flows are increasingly being organized along trans-boundary lines with the emphasis on the exercise being undertaken rather than on traditional boundaries. What globalization is teaching us then is that the greatest security we have comes from excellence, innovation and adaptability. It comes from the dynamic ability to deploy and expand our skills and talents as individuals and societies. It comes from knowing that we have the strength and resources to meet any challenges that come our way - not always by ourselves, but often with the help and support of our friends and neighbors.

The real choice for most other people in the world is the extent to which we participate in a wealth-generating process of global proportions, and harness its potential, not whether we participate. That is why the future will belong to those who embrace globalization and are willing to prepare for it. And education is the key to preparing for our shared, global future.

The world of tomorrow will require people with a genuine depth and breadth of talents - not just the formal skills found in the engineering, scientific, economic, legal, medical or other professions - vital though they are - but many other skills as well. The global information and telecommunications revolution is an excellent example of what I am talking about.

New forms of communications technology, emerging by the month, are ensuring that no corner of the world will be untouched by globalization. The notion of a purely domestic market is becoming obsolete with the spreading use of the Internet. Once a product or service is available on the Internet, it can be sold to the world at large.

Recent estimates suggest that the value of goods and services transacted on the Internet will grow from its current value. And before too long, it will be possible to access the Internet not just in English but in the user's own language.

The fast growing services sector is another dynamic part of the global economy, which offers unique challenges and opportunities for tomorrow's professionals. To succeed in this demanding sector, you will need to understand and work in a range of different cultures, languages and legal and financial systems. You will need to think and act in region-wide and global terms.

That is why tomorrow's world will require people who are willing to embrace the world around them and all that it offers. It will require people who can shape global and regional forces to the advantage of their societies and enterprises, and not be cowered and defeated by them.

Above all, the 21st century is the century of the knowledge worker. Universities are sources of the new knowledge, which will be needed by tomorrow's leaders, and are key repositories of the wisdom and insight we have garnered to date.

If the process of global enrichment is to continue unabated, universities and other applied institutions will need to drive the development of global knowledge workers. Pakistan needs to make a strong policy commitment to promoting education, not just for Pakistanis but also for people from throughout the Asia, Africa and beyond, in preparation for the new era.

I know that the new skills and insights people have gained will help them build their own futures with pride, and the futures of our countries with equal pride. But the vital contribution people make to the success and stability of Pakistan will do more than enhance the lives of their friends and families. It will lay the foundations for the well-being and security of people throughout the Asia.

I believe that Pakistan needs to do something to recognize this important link between knowledge and the development of better and more effective relations between countries. We need to harness the intellectual `horse power' of the Pakistan’s university system. We need to place this unique educational asset in the service of our national interests more systematically and productively.

Pakistan has a proud history of educating people. Today we are confronted with the challenge of preparing the worthy custodians of that tradition.

According to UNESCO's global estimate, 1.35 million tertiary students study outside their home countries. And Pakistan hosts a number not worth considering of these students on a per capita basis than other Asian countries. This is a clear indication not just of the quality of our institutions but of the little primacy we attach to education and particularly our national identity established by the West after the 9/11. Lucklessly this identity has been tarnished mostly by the power that considers Pakistan as the major ally in its war against terrorism. Pakistan must do something to scratch out this image.

Pakistan has great institutions with remarkable traditions of excellence in higher learning and personal development. Nobel Laureate Dr Abdul Salam symbolizes this tradition.

A successful global future requires a global education, and it requires deep respect for the cultures, values and experiences of others. It also requires advanced studies in reading the futures, upcoming trends and above all corporate and administrative creativity. They need to tailor courses for our future policy planners to study creativity and innovation.

Being a developing country Pakistan’s industry is emerging and in a buildup stage. Hence informed decision-making in investment is significantly needed. It should use commercial intelligence as a tool to have a nodding acquaintance with future trends and sneak out of stereotyped and monotonous thinking. Asif J. Mir, Organizational Transformation

The Changing Face of Public Management

There will be absolutely changed conditions under which public managers will operate in the future, some of the areas of knowledge, skills, and attitudes that they will be required to possess, and some of the pathways public managers might explore in order to move toward the future.

There will be an extraordinary explosion of new knowledge and technological innovations, especially in the areas of information sciences, genetics, materials, instrumentation, automation, and space. Our public managers will wade into an age of extraordinary technological change and have to accommodate themselves and the institutions to dramatically different bodies of knowledge and technological innovations.

They will not only have to cope with and employ their expanded knowledge and technological capacity, they will have to learn to use this knowledge and technological capacity for the benefit of society. In the technological world of the future, there will be even greater temptations for them to be captured by technology, to fall prey to “technological imperative,” and to allow rational technical interests to supercede human concerns and those of values. Finding ways of employing advanced technologies so as to enhance rather than restrict their capacity for leadership, creativity, and personal responsibility will be a serious challenge.

In the future, knowledge and information will prevail. And if information is power, then those who have information will indeed have power. But who will have information? Information will be increasingly centralized and controlled and marketed through traditional economic and political processes. It will be widely distributed throughout society, so that increasing rather than decreasing numbers of people will have information and in turn have power. Such a possibility will lead to “the twilight of hierarchy,” to be inevitable.

Combining these issues, we can safely predict that the knowledge or information that our public managers will be able to access will be tremendous, to the point that the quantity of information will no longer be the most important issue. Rather the key question will be how to organize this information for human purposes. This means that public administration will have to learn to organize information in a fashion that will facilitate the pursuit of important public purposes. The great challenge will be to organize information so that we can enhance the process of democratic decision-making, of consensus building, and of dialogue and deliberation.

There’s no question that we will have the capacity to organize information for dramatic new public purposes, to restructure our structures of governance in dramatic ways. But what will our choices be? Imagine a computer in Islamabad that could reach out into every home, so that on any occasion that a major policy decision was required, an appropriate message could go out to all the citizens and their answers could guide public policy - a process that would approximate pure democracy.

The globalization of society is obvious today, though in twenty-five years or so, we may experience trans-globalization or beyond, as the frontiers of the oceans and space are extended even further. Already we are thinking more in global terms. However, our managers are still thinking in terms of traditional institutions operating in a new global context. They are not yet asking how they reconfigure businesses and governments so as to carry out a global vision. How do they encourage businesses and governments to assume global responsibilities rather than those defined in terms of one’s own self interest? For example, how can Pakistan move toward sustainable development and environmental justice on a global basis?

One obvious casualty of the global age may be the nation-state, replaced not necessarily by a new global or interplanetary federation but possibly by new forms of governance far beyond those we can imagine today.

In future our public administration should know the importance of “responsibilities” rather than “functions” of government. While a large part of the current worldwide debate over privatization or outsourcing speaks to the question of which “functions” belong where, the new debate will necessarily focus on public responsibilities and speak in a language of ethics, citizenship and the public interest.

In reinvented government or the new public management, customers shall replace citizens - or, to put it differently, the integrative role of citizenship has been reduced to the narrow self-interest of customership - in government as in business.

Indeed, we think the job of all public managers will increasingly be more than directing or managing our public organizations. It will be not merely “steering” or “rowing” but “building the boat.” The new public manager will construct networks of varied interests that can work effectively to solve public problems. In doing so, it will be the job of the public administrator to promote pluralism, to create opportunities for constructive dissent, to preserve that which is distinctive about individuals and groups, and to provide an opportunity for diverse groups to share in establishing future directions for the community. The administrator will play a substantial role in diminishing polarization, teaching diversity and respect, building coalitions, resolving disputes, negotiating and mediating. The work of the top public managers will thus be - to build community.

There are two broad areas that public managers will need to explore in order to fashion a response to the trends. These emerging trends will turn public management both “inside-out” and “upside-down.” Public management will be turned “inside-out” as the largely internal focus of management in the past is replaced by an external focus, specifically a focus on citizens and citizenship. Public management will be turned “upside-down” as the traditional top-down orientation of the field is replaced - not necessarily by a bottom-up approach, but by a system of shared leadership.

In the past public administration has been largely focused on what happens within the public bureaucracy. The future will require that it dramatically refocus its attention on the world outside, particularly the world of citizens and citizenship. Asif J. Mir, Organizational Transformation

21st Century Crime

Innovation unfortunately brings opportunities for crime. Innovative technologies will transform the future of crime and is likely to occur on two levels: (a) the continuation of traditional, age-old physical crime; and (b) the new form of electronic crime.

The types of household property that will increasingly be targeted by physical crimes are high-value, high-tech electronic and computer products. In the future, traditional physical crime will be counterbalanced, and perhaps surpassed, in scope and social impact by the theft from consumers and businesses of intangible property, in particular electronic services, knowledge, and even identities. These types of thefts will increasingly be committed via computer-based telecommunications vehicles. It is the theft of intangible products and services, through traditional physical means, and more significantly, by way of computer-aided vehicles, that represents the most dramatic change in the complexion of property crime of the future.

Whole new information markets are being opened up as playing fields for computer criminals. Much of the Internet economy revolves around advertising. And using databases of personal information targets much of this advertising. This information is extremely valuable, and could be stolen, and a black market of information created.

Many Pakistanis in urban cities now use ATM cards and credit cards for a large percentage of their purchasing. As we move further from a paper-money society, to a purely electronic economy, new types of crime will emerge. What types exactly will depend on what new forms of security tomorrow's criminals will need to break. Will people be synthesizing voice authorizations? Or even learning to imitate a victim's typing style? All we can be sure of, is that criminals of tomorrow, like those of last century and those of today, will keep on innovating.

Meanwhile, other possible malicious uses of computers have become available. One of the most worrying is the likelihood of terrorists moving online, and engaging in what is called cyber terrorism. The methods of producing terror, destruction, mayhem, and fear will be much more destructive online than conventional methods in the real world.

The terrorists will remotely access the processing control systems of a cereal manufacturer, for example, change the levels of iron supplement, and sicken and kill the children of a nation enjoying their food. They will be able to perform similar remote alterations at a processor of infant formula. The terrorist does not have to be at the factory to execute these acts. He will be able to place a number of computerized bombs around a city, all simultaneously transmitting unique numeric patterns, each bomb receiving each other's pattern. The future terrorist will not have to be strapped to any of these bombs; no suicidal bombings; the encrypted patterns cannot be predicted and matched through alternate transmission; and the number of bombs prevents disarming them all simultaneously. The bombs will detonate.

A cyber terrorist will disrupt the banks, the international financial transactions, and the stock exchanges. Unlikely would be immediate arrest. The terrorist, the perpetrator is sitting in another continent while a nation's economic systems grind to a halt. Destabilization will be achieved.

Advanced telecommunications technology will allow offenders to reach a greater number of victims. There are also fears that the ongoing organization, sophistication, and globalization of crime may pose a greater threat to financial markets, economic stability, and even the national security of target countries.

An important predictor of the types of products and services that will be targeted for theft is the extent to which a product is desired. Products attractive to both consumers and criminals are sometimes called hot products. The characteristics of goods will make them highly vulnerable to theft. These are summarized in the acronym CRAVED (implying products which are Concealable, Removable, Available, Valuable, Enjoyable, and Disposable). Based on this threat assessment, some examples of hot products that may be targeted by offenders in the future include portable digital virtual disk (DVD) players, the wearable personal computer, automobile digital stereo systems, laptop computers, and handheld personal computers.

The Internet will provide computer-literate offenders with new opportunities to commit crimes directly related to networked systems. E-mail abuse, viruses, and hacking are expected to grow in prominence in the future. Companies are likely to face Internet attack from both within (by employees) as well as externally (by hackers). The facilities will be vulnerable to electronic vandalism, and theft and the potential for loss of or damage to such data can be immense.

There is a growing fear that well-organized criminals will launder their ill-gotten gains through e-commerce transactions, sending electronic cash to cyber-accounts located all over the world. With vast wealth at their disposal, criminal organizations will be able to buy almost any kind of technological resource or expertise.

Copyright fraud is expected to greatly increase in the future. In particular, the illegal uploading and downloading of copyrighted materials from the Internet, such as music, movies, and games, etc., will be an area of immense growth. This is accompanied by more traditional forms of piracy, such as illegal copying of software, videos, and computer games. Traditional and Internet-based forms of product piracy are problematic because both are so widespread, hard to detect, and difficult to police.

Technology offers us a chance to beat crime - but it will take innovation, understanding and education. It is today's research and development that will produce the crime-resistant products of the future. We must take every opportunity we can to use science and technology to reduce crime and improve the quality of our lives.

The weakest link in crime control is the lack of education in law enforcement relating to computer-technology crimes. The law enforcement community in Pakistan has not yet devoted itself even to start thinking about technological-aided crimes.

Are Pakistan’s police and other criminal organizations prepared for sophisticated use of new technologies for countering more sophisticated crime of the future that heavily involves computer-related crimes, especially in crimes against modern times? Asif J. Mir, Organizational Transformation